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Measuring monthly statistical crime in Germany and the Czech Republic in relation to the European migration crisis
ŠÍPEK, Matěj
The diploma thesis is based on a defining of a complex goal: Investigation of the dependence of monthly (in connectivity with the possibility of obtaining data also annual) crime in selected European countries and in relation to the European migration crisis. Germany and Czech Republic became selected countries. A monthly and annual crime index was used to achieve the comprehensive goal of the work thesis To achieve the goal, hypotheses H1, H2, H3, H4 were determined: Hypothesis 1 (H1): Monthly crime indexes in the Czech Republic and Germany do not correlate. Hypothesis 2 (H2): Monthly crime indexes in the Czech Republic and Germany have different theoretical divisions. Hypothesis 3 (H3): The annual crime indexes in the Czech Republic and Germany do not correlate. Hypothesis 4 (H4): Annual crime indexes in the Czech Republic and Germany have different theoretical divisions. Through the practical part of the thesis it was found, that the monthly crime indexes in the Czech Republic and Germany do not correlate and have different theoretical divisions (H1 hypotheses and H2 were confirmed). It was also found that indexes of annual crime in the Czech Republic and Germany strongly correlate and have the same theoretical divisions (hypotheses H3 and H4 were not confirmed). The reason for the confirmation of hypotheses H1, H2 and non-confirmation of hypotheses H3, H4 was probably different time periods for data collection (monthly crime included the period January 2011 to December 2016, monthly crime in Germany had to be calculated from the annual crime, due to data collection problems crime was based on data sets from 1987 to 2016). The introduction of different time periods was forced by the difficult availability of data in Germany. The methodology of the thesis used in the theoretical part is mainly search of available literature. Professional literature, valid legislation and Internet resources have been studied. The methodology of the thesis used in the practical part is based on methods of statistics, used for data processing using tables, graphs and basic calculations, due to it is possible to verify hypotheses. Basic statistical descriptive methods were used in order: Formulation of statistical survey, Scaling, Measurement, Elementary statistical processing. Basic statistical mathematical methods were used in order: Non-parametric testing, Linear regression analysis, Linear correlation analysis. Data collection was performed as follows: a) Czech forensic statistics were downloaded from the databases of the Czech Police, which also contain criminality for individual months. Furthermore, the number of inhabitants from the Czech Statistical Office was found for individual years. Crime indexes were calculated from these data. b) The BKA database (Federal Criminal Office of Germany) did not publish criminal statistics. For this reason, an article was published through ntv.de that published the annual crime of Germany. Population numbers for individual years were found through the Federal Statistical Office of Germany. Crime indexes were calculated from these data. At the end of the thesis there is pointed out the solution of possible crisis situations, including problems involving aspects of migration. The great importance of reducing crime is mainly prevention with a sensitive link to the solution of migration issues - to help in areas associated with the emergence of eg migration waves and thus preventing a crisis situations. The thesis did not deal with the political aspects of all examined hypotheses. Methodologically, the diploma thesis can be characterized as a report on the applied research solution in which its quantitative dimension prevails.
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